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Championship
Top edges right now
Paddock wire
Driver Elo
Elo model comparison teammate head-to-head, out-of-sample
Strength model internals
Walk-forward backtest
Model competition - 2026 holdout
Promotion history the loop's own decisions - promotions and holds
Finishing position odds
How to read this
Each row is a driver, and each column is a finishing position - P1 (the win) on the left, running through to DNF on the right. Each cell shows the model's estimated chance of that exact finish, from thousands of simulated runs of the race; darker cells are more likely.
DNF is the chance a driver does not finish at all - retirement, crash, or mechanical failure. Expected position, next to each driver's name, is their average finishing position across every simulation - one number summarizing the whole row. Hover any cell or column header for exact figures. For finished rounds, the outlined cell in each row marks where the driver actually finished, and the panels below settle every recorded bet against the real result.
Team builder entertainment only
Engine Era
Team
Driver
Co-Driver
Spin the era to start building your fantasy team.