PODIUM CHASERS

FIXTURE
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Championship

Top edges right now

Paddock wire

Driver Elo

Elo model comparison teammate head-to-head, out-of-sample

Strength model internals

Walk-forward backtest

Model competition - 2026 holdout

Promotion history the loop's own decisions - promotions and holds

Finishing position odds

How to read this

Each row is a driver, and each column is a finishing position - P1 (the win) on the left, running through to DNF on the right. Each cell shows the model's estimated chance of that exact finish, from thousands of simulated runs of the race; darker cells are more likely.

DNF is the chance a driver does not finish at all - retirement, crash, or mechanical failure. Expected position, next to each driver's name, is their average finishing position across every simulation - one number summarizing the whole row. Hover any cell or column header for exact figures. For finished rounds, the outlined cell in each row marks where the driver actually finished, and the panels below settle every recorded bet against the real result.

Team builder entertainment only

Engine Era
Team
Driver
Co-Driver
Spin the era to start building your fantasy team.

Career Elo